Why production plans fail on the shop floor
Most plans fail not because the arithmetic is wrong but because the assumptions behind it are unrealistic.
Capacity is treated as unlimited. Material requirements planning works backwards from due dates using lead times and does not check whether the machines are free. The plan looks achievable and then queues build up at the bottleneck.
Lead times are padded. To protect against surprises, planners add buffer to lead times. Every job then waits longer, and work-in-progress grows.
Changeovers are invisible. Time spent switching a machine between products rarely appears in a simple plan, though it can consume a large share of a shift.
Shortages appear at the last moment. Without a materials check tied to the schedule, a missing component is discovered when the job is about to start.
The schedule lives in someone's head. A spreadsheet or whiteboard maintained by one experienced scheduler is a single point of failure.
